US officials are asking the war-torn nation to clearly outline its combat objectives for requesting expanded use of US-supplied long-range missiles.

Ukraine has stated that it plans to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of 300 kilometers (186 miles), to strike Russian airfields, command centers, and weapons depots deep in enemy territory.

President Joe Biden’s administration currently allows Kyiv to use the weapon only for strikes within Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

US officials remain skeptical that lifting the restrictions would have a significant impact on the war, noting that it may also come with greater risks.

Growing Pressure

The US has been facing increasing pressure from NATO allies to allow Kyiv greater freedom to hit targets inside Russia to level the battlefield.

Moscow’s forces have been using long-range aircraft, missiles, and drones to attack Ukraine, quickly gaining the upper hand in the ongoing war.

Washington has expressed concerns that doing so would further escalate the war and allow Russia to reverse-engineer some of America’s most sophisticated weapons.

It has also argued that the Ukrainian military is already using long-range drones to strike deep into Russia, which is a cheaper and more strategic method than firing costly missiles.

Additionally, the White House downplayed the capabilities of its ATACMS, stating they would be ineffective now because Moscow has likely moved its most immediate threats to facilities beyond the missile’s range.

“I don’t believe one capability is going to be decisive, and I stand by that comment,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin affirmed.

Russian Warning

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any strikes using Western weapons deep inside its territory will lead to a significant change in the nature of the conflict.

He said such a move would be viewed as an escalation of the war, making the US and its NATO allies directly involved.

“And if this is so, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us,” Putin told reporters.

The post US Seeks Clarity From Ukraine on Expanded Use of Long-Range Weapons appeared first on The Defense Post.

The longtime Russian leader on Monday signed a decree boosting the number of active troops by 180,000 soldiers — making the Russian army the second largest in the world by active troop size.

Russia has become increasingly militarized during the Kremlin’s Ukraine offensive and it is the third time Putin has ordered a troop boost since launching the conflict in February 2022.

“In close cooperation between federal and regional authorities, it is necessary to solve the key task of ensuring that the armed forces are manned with prepared, trained people, prepared by personnel,” Putin said during a meeting with defence officials.

“I am referring in particular to the units and compounds of permanent combat readiness of the new military districts,” Putin added.

Russia restructured its military districts earlier this year — forming the Moscow and Leningrad military districts — in response to tensions with the West.

The post Putin to Boost Troop Numbers to 1.5 Million Active Soldiers appeared first on The Defense Post.

In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine explained that army units are struggling to fend off devastating Russian attacks due to being under-equipped.

He emphasized that Kyiv needs at least 14 fully-equipped brigades “to be ready,” but recent military aid packages were not enough to sufficiently arm even a third of that.

“We need to equip 14 brigades — we still don’t have it. Out of this package, we have not even equipped four brigades… Therefore, we need to produce drones domestically. It’s not enough, but we have done it,” Zelensky stated.

Ukraine is continuing its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, but reports suggest Moscow is preparing to mount a counter-offensive.

‘We Used All We Could’

Zelensky noted that an eight-month hiatus in US military aid had significantly depleted Ukraine’s weapons reserves.

He was referring to a $61-billion supplemental aid bill for Kyiv that had been stalled in the US Congress until April 2024.

The president explained that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “had used everything they had” to defend themselves from Russian assaults.

“We transferred everything that was in the stockpiles – in warehouses and in reserve brigades,” he said. “We took everything [we] had – all [our] weapons.”

‘Make Ukraine Strong’

Zelensky argued that the number of brigades protecting Ukraine’s territories is irrelevant if “half of them are not equipped.”

He pointed out that Kyiv’s forces lack armored vehicles and artillery shells, with the Russians firing 12 times more rounds than Ukrainian troops.

He also challenged Western nations to make Ukraine strong to see Russian President Vladimir Putin “sit down and negotiate.”

The post Zelensky Says Western Aid ‘Can’t Even Equip 4 of 14’ Ukrainian Brigades appeared first on The Defense Post.

Ukraine launched an unprecedented cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, sending thousands of troops across the border and seizing several villages. Putin said shortly after there could be no talk of negotiations.

Speaking at a question and answer session at Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in the city of Vladivostok, Putin said Russia was ready for talks but on the basis of an aborted deal between Moscow’s and Kyiv’s negotiators reached in Istanbul in 2022, the terms of which were never made public.

“Are we ready to negotiate with them? We have never refused to do so, but not on the basis of some ephemeral demands, but on the basis of those documents that were agreed and actually initialled in Istanbul,” Putin said.

The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed Russia and Ukraine were on the verge of a deal in the spring of 2022, shortly after Moscow launched its offensive in Ukraine.

“We managed to reach an agreement, that is the whole point. The signature of the head of the Ukrainian delegation who initialled this document testifies to this, which means that the Ukrainian side was generally satisfied with the agreements reached,” Putin said.

“It did not come into force only because they were given a command not to do so, because the elites of the United States, Europe — some European countries — wanted to achieve a strategic defeat of Russia,” Putin added.

The post Putin Says Russia Ready for Talks With Ukraine appeared first on The Defense Post.

US President Joe Biden condemned the “deplorable attack,” which Kyiv said hit a military training facility and a nearby hospital, though authorities did not say how many of the victims were military or civilians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to hold what he called “Russian scum” accountable while rescuers worked to clear the rubble.

“According to the information available now, this Russian strike killed 51 people,” Zelensky said in his evening address.

“The number of injured is 271. We know that there are people under the rubble of the destroyed building. Everything is being done to save as many lives as possible,” Zelensky said.

Washington, Berlin, and London all condemned the strike.

Biden vowed Washington would continue military aid to Kyiv, “including providing the air defense systems and capabilities they need to protect their country.”

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the attack a “sickening act of aggression,” while German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the brutality of Russian President Vladimir Putin “knows no limits.”

Putin traveled to Russia’s Vladivostok on Tuesday, the Kremlin said, after concluding a visit to Mongolia.

The trip was his first to an International Criminal Court (ICC) member since it issued a warrant for his arrest related to the war in Ukraine.

‘Full Investigation’

The strike triggered anger on Ukrainian social media after unconfirmed reports said it had targeted an outdoor military ceremony, with many blaming reckless behavior from officials who allowed the event to take place despite the threat of Russian attacks.

Zelensky said he had ordered a “full and prompt investigation into all the circumstances.”

Two Russian ballistic missiles hit the hospital and educational institution, partially destroying one of the buildings, Zelensky said.

The strike took place in the morning in Poltava, a city with a pre-war population of around 300,000 people, some 300 kilometers (190 miles) east of Kyiv.

“The window blew open. Dust was everywhere. I just had time to tell my sister that a rocket was flying,” said Yevgeniya Chyrva, a resident in a building damaged during the attack.

The defense ministry said that the time between the alarm and the arrival of the missiles was “so short that it caught people in the middle of evacuating to the bomb shelter.”

The Poltava military communications institute, founded in the 1960s when Ukraine was part of the USSR, specializes in training telecommunications specialists.

“One of the institute’s buildings was partially destroyed, and many people were trapped under the rubble,” the defense ministry said.

An AFP journalist on the scene saw several ambulances heading towards the affected site shortly after the attack on the military institute.

Rescuers were still at work after managing to save 25 people, including 11 trapped under the rubble, the defense ministry said.

Government Reshuffle

Poltava’s governor, Philip Pronin, said his administration could not provide more details of the circumstances of the strike “for security reasons.”

Ukrainian MP Maria Bezugla, who regularly criticizes the country’s military leadership, accused high-ranking officials of endangering soldiers.

“These tragedies keep repeating themselves. When will it stop?” she posted on Telegram.

The attack came as Ukraine’s leadership signaled a major government reshuffle was underway, with at least six officials submitting their resignations Tuesday.

The Minister for Strategic Industries, Minister for Justice, and Minister of Environmental Protection were among those to step down.

Zelensky has ordered several reshuffles since the war began, sacking his defense minister last September after a series of corruption scandals and more recently replacing his top commander amid setbacks on the battlefield.

The move follows another recent scandal for Ukraine’s army command after a US-made F-16 fighter jet crashed in combat last week, killing the pilot.

The crash of the F-16 was a high-profile setback for Kyiv, which had lobbied the West to send the advanced fighter jet for months, and triggered the dismissal of the country’s air force chief, Mykola Oleshchuk.

The post Russian Strike Kills 51 in Ukrainian City appeared first on The Defense Post.

The DC-based think tank said in a recent report that Moscow’s response to the Ukrainian offensive inside its territory was being hampered by overlapping command structures, which are causing “friction” and “confusion” among its forces.

For example, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov appointed his deputy minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov deputy of a coordinating council tasked with organizing the military response to the incursion in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk.

Belousov also tasked five people to address specific issues related to the incursion, such as logistics, military-technical support, civilian evacuations, and medical support.

Additionally, Russia created three groups of forces to protect civilians from drone strikes and other attacks in those regions.

According to the ISW, this redundant structure will likely create additional confusion within the Russian defense ministry as it battles advancing Ukrainian forces.

“ISW continues to assess that complex and overlapping responsibilities and the seemingly ever-growing list of actors the Kremlin has tasked with responding to the Ukrainian incursion [that impedes] Russia’s ability to establish effective joint command-and-control structures,” the report noted.

‘Russia Plans to Respond’

Speaking during an event in Kyiv on August 21, Ukraine military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said his forces had successfully advanced more than 28 kilometers (17.4 miles) into Russia’s Kursk region.

They also reportedly captured 1,263 square kilometers (488 square miles) of Russian territory and 93 settlements.

But despite Moscow’s seemingly dysfunctional military command, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GRU) said the invading forces certainly have a plan in place for an all-out response.

“The operation is ongoing. Russia is planning a response. There are plans, we know about them. Our government and military leadership know about them so they can continue [the operation] and disrupt the [Russian] plans,” GRU deputy head Vadym Skibitsky said.

The post Russia Struggling With Dysfunctional Military Command: Think Tank appeared first on The Defense Post.

Ukraine surprised everybody, including its own allies, when it sent troops over the border on August 6, two-and-half years after Russia launched its invasion, and has made claims of new gains almost daily.

The incursion has covered 1,250 square kilometers (482 square miles) so far, according to Ukraine, while Russia says it has contained the Ukrainian attack.

What Does Ukraine Want?

Responding to requests from allies, Ukraine has stated the objectives of its attack, saying that it did not seek to “occupy” Russian territory, but was looking to raise pressure on Russia ahead of any future negotiations.

“It’s a gamble, with the aim of maybe swapping the conquered areas against Ukrainian territory elsewhere,” Pierre Razoux, Academic and Research Director at the FMES strategic think tank, told AFP.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that the incursion was achieving Kyiv’s objectives, which officials have previously said include stretching Russian forces, destroying Russian military equipment, creating a “buffer zone,” and bringing the war “closer” to an end on “fair” terms.

Does Ukraine Have the Means?

Ukraine had to limit the size of the military contingent it sent into Russia, as most of its army’s potential is tied up on the main front.

Razoux said Ukraine had sent “a few mobile brigades” and some motorized units featuring mostly western equipment, which included “a lot of wheeled armored vehicles.”

Michel Goya, a military historian, added that Ukraine probably succeeded in weakening Russian defenses “with drones, electronic warfare and the infiltration of ranger units.”

However, after rapid early advances, the Ukrainian attack slowed as Russia deployed more solid defenses.

“After initial disarray and disorganisation, Russian forces have deployed in greater force in the region,” the British defense ministry observed last Friday.

A Two-Front Situation

With its attack, Ukraine is engaging Russia on a second front for the first time since the war started, creating a situation that neither will be able to bear for very long, said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.

“While both might be able to surge their forces for short periods, it is unclear if the Ukrainians or Russians can sustain such an approach for months at a time,” he said. “One side or the other will have to make a difficult choice about their priorities.”

Ukraine’s position in Russia could become, over time, more fragile especially as Moscow’s army continues to make steady gains in Ukraine.

Vasily Kashin, a Russia-based political scientist, noted that Ukraine had hurt Russia’s prestige with its wide-ranging incursion but had so far failed to take over any strategic sites.

Meanwhile, as Russian winter approaches, Ukrainian troops may find that the usefulness of armored vehicles is limited because they move around on wheels, not chains.

Razoux said these vehicles were “very efficient” in the summer thanks to their speed and agility, “but when the rain, snow and mud arrive, they become a nightmare because they get stuck.”

Moscow’s tactic could consist of allowing the mobile units to advance and then encircle them as they become bogged down, he warned. “This would neutralize Ukraine’s strategic reserve.”

Cautious Allies

Ukraine’s western allies have been reacting cautiously to the Ukrainian incursion, worried that their weapons could be used on Russian soil, possibly sparking a strong Russian reaction.

It took US President Joe Biden a week to give his feedback on the incursion, which he said had created “a real dilemma” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Britain, meanwhile, allows Kyiv to use a squadron of 14 British-made 14 Challenger 2 tanks deployed as it sees fit.

However, Britain and Western allies have put limits on the use of long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow cruise missile, to avoid escalating the conflict.

Germany, meanwhile, has announced a sharp reduction in its bilateral military aid to Ukraine.

Paris, still awaiting a new government, has not commented.

Kyiv’s main aim may be to demonstrate to allies “that Russian victory is not inevitable, and that Ukraine can fight and win,” said Ryan.

But, he added, this was unlikely to force any change in Putin’s designs on Ukraine.

“As stunning and clever as the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has been, it may not change Putin’s overall war goals,” he said.

The post Ukraine’s Russia Incursion May Be Hard to Sustain: Analysts appeared first on The Defense Post.

Putin was in Azerbaijan on a two-day visit — his first to the oil-rich country since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, and since Baku retook the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in a September 2023 offensive.

Russia has for decades been a traditional mediator between the Caucasus foes but has in the last two years been bogged down by its Ukraine campaign, with Western powers playing an increasing role in arbitrating the conflict.

“It is widely known that Russia is also facing crises, first of all on the Ukrainian track,” Putin said in Baku in joint remarks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

“However, Russia’s historical involvement in the events in the South Caucasus, even during the recent years, makes it necessary for us to participate where needed by the sides, without a doubt.”

Baku’s campaign ended three decades of Armenian separatist rule and soured relations between Yerevan and its traditional ally Moscow, with Armenia accusing Russia of inaction and strengthening its ties with Western countries since.

“If we can do something to sign a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia… we will be very happy to,” Putin said.

The Russian leader said that after his Baku visit he will contact Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to “tell him about the results of our negotiations.”

Aliyev said the security of the region largely depended on the close cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia.

“The new situation (since September last year) opens up new opportunities for establishing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus,” he said.

When Baku recaptured Karabakh in a swift offensive last September, it led to the exodus of the mountainous enclave’s entire ethnic Armenian population — more than 100,000 people.

The post Putin in Baku Offers to Mediate Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Deal appeared first on The Defense Post.

Former president and parliament member Petro Poroshenko handed over the large batch of volunteer aid to the Ukrainian Defense Forces for its units in Russia’s Kursk region.

Among them are 1,205 first-person view (FPV) attack drones, as well as 51 daytime and 17 nighttime DJI Mavic unmanned aerial vehicles.

Twelve ATVs were also delivered for assault troops and the evacuation of wounded soldiers.

Additionally, the donation includes nine Shatro 50-1M EW systems designed to provide increased troop protection against Russian kamikaze drones.

According to its manufacturer, the system forms a dome of radio frequency interference with a radius of up to 250 meters (820 feet). It emits 50 watts of power.

Ukrainian units in Kursk were also given a new excavator, a Foden truck, and makeshift shower facilities.

The Kursk Incursion

Earlier this month, Kyiv’s forces launched a surprise attack on Russia’s western city of Kursk.

They reportedly used drones and jammers to down Moscow’s surveillance capabilities and advance into enemy territory.

A week after the incursion, Ukraine had advanced over an area of at least 800 square kilometers (308 square miles) and seized control of several Russian towns, according to data released by the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained that the attack was meant to create a “buffer zone” to prevent further Russian strikes across the border.

With the push expected to continue over the next few weeks, Poroshenko reiterated the need to support Ukraine’s frontline forces by providing them with the necessary weapons and equipment for their operations.

“We cannot comment on their work, but we can continue our cause to help. Because we support the armed forces wherever they are,” he said. “All this equipment will do its job for the advancement of our troops.”

The post Ukraine Receives Dozens of Drones, ATVs, EW Systems for Use Inside Russia appeared first on The Defense Post.

But despite appearances, this development is not progress: it augurs more sovereign “piracy” by the enemies of free nations.

Of course, we should all be overjoyed that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Marine Paul Whelan, and the independent radio journalist Alsu Kurmasheva have returned to the US, and that Kara-Murza and two other Russian dissidents were saved.

But the price for their release was huge: an FSB colonel who assassinated a Chechen national in Germany, another FSB agent who laundered money for the Kremlin, an operative who hacked into computers to make trades netting millions for Vladimir Putin’s coffers, another Russian agent who moved American ammunition into Russia, and four confirmed Russian spies held in western prisons.

Asymmetric Swaps

These are in no way symmetric swaps: Russians convicted of very serious crimes in impartial jury trials are increasingly being traded for completely innocent Western journalists, businesspersons, and athletes who were snatched at Putin’s command and convicted many months after capture in Russian kangaroo courts.

The same was true when American basketball star Brittany Griner was exchanged for Russian arms dealer Vicktor Bout, nicknamed “the merchant of death.”

These moves are nothing like the US-Soviet swaps during the 20th century Cold War, when actual American operatives and military agents were captured in Russia. We are trading innocents for hardened criminals involved in enabling totalitarian systems of mass murder.

The same holds for Biden’s September 2023 decision to release over $6 billion in Iranian assets, which were held sequestered in a South Korean account, in exchange for five innocent Americans held for years without just cause by Iran’s totalitarian theocracy.

Rather than “prisoner exchanges,” we should be calling them “criminals for hostages swaps.”

Hostage Diplomacy

The glaring problem with such “hostage diplomacy” is obvious: as Senator Mitt Romney said of the Iran deal, the appearance of paying more than $1 billion for each American freed will only encourage more hostage-taking.

Putin will be further emboldened to order more Russian agents and proxies to carry out assassinations, hacking, fraud, weapons trafficking, and attacks on democratic election systems because he can retrieve any of his agents who are caught and convicted: all he has to do is snatch some innocent Americans, Germans, or other Western citizens to use as bargaining chips.

This is a losing spiral: sovereign hostage-taking has been increasing for years, just like ransomware, and it is a bipartisan problem no matter who is in the White House. In 1985, Ronald Reagan infamously sent arms to Iran in exchange for US hostages held in Lebanon as part of an illegal complex larger deal. Short-term gain leads to long-term pain.

The situation is similar when terrorist groups take hostages. In his 2018 book on terrorism, economist and game theory expert Todd Sandler notes one study that found that 2.62 “additional abductions” resulted from concessions to get one hostage back.

The International Center for Counter-Terrorism concludes that rewarding terrorist kidnappers can “encourage imitation and become contagious.”

This is why, ironically, the Biden administration earlier this year began seriously considering a ban on paying ransomware attackers to release computing systems they have seized. But the White House and congressional leaders failed to follow through on this, caving to pressure from corporations and local governments that fear having no recourse when their systems are breached.

New International Hostage Game

Of course, hostage-taking has been part of warfare and hostile relations among nations for many centuries.

Yet medieval kings and queens responded very differently than Western authorities do now: when their innocent citizens were captured and held, they would often snatch innocents from the other side to use as bargaining chips.

Western nations have not done this because our systems of justice are not dictatorial and include habeas corpus, which is the basic right to a speedy and impartial trial. Thus, as Keir Giles from Chatham House told Newsweek, Putin can retrieve his “murderers, spies, and criminals” by taking Western hostages to trade for them, knowing that the US cannot “respond in kind.”

This central asymmetry is now the reason why the US and its allies are losing so badly in the new international hostage game.

To even the scales, American presidents may have to consider detaining Russians or Iranians of interest to their regimes whenever those dictators grab innocent Americans. This would require suspending habeas corpus for those foreign nationals we hold under special reprisal orders, and exchanging only them – not Russians, Iranians, or Chinese operatives already convicted of major crimes – in exchange for American victims.

In other words, we would need to copy Putin’s tactic of “stockpiling” prominent Americans to use as bargaining chips.

For example, when Putin seized and held Griner to use as a pawn in exchange for Russian criminals justly convicted in the US, we could have responded by seizing three more Russians closely connected with the Kremlin and suspected of shady dealings. Indefinite detentions of select foreign nationals held for months or years without trial might sound extreme; yet without such reprisals, we will see more innocent victims in Griner’s and Gershkovich’s former situation.

Legal Reforms

We could further strengthen this tit-for-tat response with legal reforms that also beat ransomware.

Outlawing all forms of payment for taking innocent American hostages and seizing control of computer systems is the most essential step. The law should include “waivers” or presidential permissions to pay only when hundreds of lives or hundreds of billions in assets are at stake, and should include criminal penalties for its violation, given the desperation payers endure.

When such a law is strictly enforced, sovereign adversaries seizing computers or human hostages will eventually realize that they are wasting their time and resources on such efforts.

So we should reconsider the policy announced by President Barack Obama in June 2015, which he broke and both Donald Trump and Biden rejected, that “the United States government will make no concessions to individuals or groups holding US nationals hostage.”

While this policy should not apply to exchanging prisoners of war, it can deter civilian hostage-taking because returning foreign civilians seized in reprisal is not a “concession.”

Beyond banning paying ransoms in all forms, we need to punish rogue regimes that snatch our citizens as political prisoners with other reprisals — such as destruction of military assets and even detention of their own friends working in the US.

The ultimate solution is to rid the Earth altogether of dictators who take innocents as political hostages, but that will probably require a global alliance of democratic nations of the sort outlined in my book, A League of Democracies.

John Davenport is Professor of Philosophy and Peace & Justice Studies at Fordham University.

He is the author of The Democracy Amendments, available through Amazon.com.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Defense Post.

The Defense Post aims to publish a wide range of high-quality opinion and analysis from a diverse array of people – do you want to send us yours? Click here to submit an op-ed.

The post Why the US and Its Allies Are Losing the New International Hostage Game appeared first on The Defense Post.